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is it random?

16 years ago  #11
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Originally posted by DarthArcon Most people put in 1 entry a week. That gives them a chance, and even a slightest chance is worth a favor a week. After all, you can get 4 favors a day. Putting in at least 1 favor will give you a chance instead of not having a chance at all. Yes, the odds are bad, but putting in more than 1 wont help you in a noticable fasion.

Say there are 2000 entries. If you have 1 of the 2000, that will guarantee a win in a maximum of 2000 weeks. Lets say you put in 100 a week. That will guarantee you a win in 20 weeks. 20 weeks is approximately 5 months. 5 months of 100 tickets a week. That is 2000 tickets total. So, in a nutshell, if you look at the average number of entries a week, thats how many tickets you would need to buy to be guaranteed a win. 2000 tickets is equal to 200 real dollars.

However, chaos is still chaos, and while there is a certain amount of predictability based on the law of probability, having 1 ticket a week still gives you a chance to beat the odds.

 

that's just playing the odds. You're never guaranteed. 

mmmmmm.sp3ktacular
16 years ago  #12
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There's more people active in nj than any other prison, that's why we see more winners in nj.

 
16 years ago  #13
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Originally posted by sp3k

Originally posted by DarthArcon Most people put in 1 entry a week. That gives them a chance, and even a slightest chance is worth a favor a week. After all, you can get 4 favors a day. Putting in at least 1 favor will give you a chance instead of not having a chance at all. Yes, the odds are bad, but putting in more than 1 wont help you in a noticable fasion.

Say there are 2000 entries. If you have 1 of the 2000, that will guarantee a win in a maximum of 2000 weeks. Lets say you put in 100 a week. That will guarantee you a win in 20 weeks. 20 weeks is approximately 5 months. 5 months of 100 tickets a week. That is 2000 tickets total. So, in a nutshell, if you look at the average number of entries a week, thats how many tickets you would need to buy to be guaranteed a win. 2000 tickets is equal to 200 real dollars.

However, chaos is still chaos, and while there is a certain amount of predictability based on the law of probability, having 1 ticket a week still gives you a chance to beat the odds.

 

that's just playing the odds. You're never guaranteed. 

 

From a technical standpoint, you are correct. It is just as possible to lose every single week regardless of how many times you enter as it is to win once after 2000 entries (and just as possible as it is to win every single week). However, from a pratical standpoint Im correct.

Probability is a curious thing. It is an attempt to give order to chaos. So how is this possible? A very simple, yet elusive reason. You know chaos is chaos, so you can predict that chaos will be chaos. Therefore, chaos itself can be given a certain amount of order based on that deduction. Does that make sense?

Anyway, believe it or not, but, while probability is not an exact science, it is extremely rare to find a situation that defies it obtusely. Especially with large numbers such as this. That is where things like cost-benefit anaysis charts come from.

16 years ago  #14
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i still dont care on how man people r on in nj becaseu no matter what no one in az will win i now for fact people in az put tickets in

 
16 years ago  #15
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Originally posted by dontfkwithme i still dont care on how man people r on in nj becaseu no matter what no one in az will win i now for fact people in az put tickets in

 

You might look at these numbers and not think twice about it. Let me put it into more believable terms...

There are currently 39,130 people in NJ, 638 in Put, and 291 in AZ. Lets just say, for the sake of argument, that only half the people in NJ actually play. Thats 19,565 players active. (And by active, I mean they come online at least once a week)

Ok, lets do the math. Say again, for the sake of argument, that everybody that are active in all three prisons put in 1 ticket each (which is very believable because thats what most people do). Thats a total of 20,494 tickets. Knowing that, odds calculations are simple. This would mean that there is a 95.5% chance that somebody in NJ would win, a 3.1% chance of somebody in Put, and a 1.4% chance of sombody in AZ.

Still think you are being cheated?

16 years ago  #16
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Arguing with people like this is pointless... they can't accept reality, convince themselves they're the victim, and nothing will change that. They actually feel better that way.

"I don't suck, they just hatin' on me"

16 years ago  #17
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Originally posted by Mufasa  

"I don't suck, they just hatin' on me"

 

 LMFAO

There are soo many people in this game that could apply to.

  FEAR THE EYE!!!!!  X_o
16 years ago  #18
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Originally posted by Mufasa Arguing with people like this is pointless... they can't accept reality, convince themselves they're the victim, and nothing will change that. They actually feel better that way.

"I don't suck, they just hatin' on me"

 

no i not saying you pick the people or what ever i mean it seems like it only picks people in nj

 

 
16 years ago  #19
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Originally posted by DarthArcon
Originally posted by dontfkwithme i still dont care on how man people r on in nj becaseu no matter what no one in az will win i now for fact people in az put tickets in

 

 

You might look at these numbers and not think twice about it. Let me put it into more believable terms...

There are currently 39,130 people in NJ, 638 in Put, and 291 in AZ. Lets just say, for the sake of argument, that only half the people in NJ actually play. Thats 19,565 players active. (And by active, I mean they come online at least once a week)

Ok, lets do the math. Say again, for the sake of argument, that everybody that are active in all three prisons put in 1 ticket each (which is very believable because thats what most people do). Thats a total of 20,494 tickets. Knowing that, odds calculations are simple. This would mean that there is a 95.5% chance that somebody in NJ would win, a 3.1% chance of somebody in Put, and a 1.4% chance of sombody in AZ.

Still think you are being cheated?

 

 first of all tell me the alst time u seen around 20k favors in for a lotto the highest the amount has been was 2k so 20k is far out of the subject

 
16 years ago  #20
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Originally posted by dontfkwithme i still dont care on how man people r on in nj becaseu no matter what no one in az will win i now for fact people in az put tickets in 

 

 [b][color=#000000] Im suprised no one has pised on your fire before me but about 4-5 weeks ago when all this was about then about no Arizona player winning a couple of weeks later a player from Arizona won his name is Billabadmash[/color][/b]

 

It would be a good idea to check that no one from Arizona has won before spouting off all this shit about it been fixed. If its fixed dont play it. If you dont play it what you moaning for go moan about something else as your kind always do. All you been playing nearly 2 months and theres some big conspiracy thing about everythings fixed pick your dummy up and get back in your pram and dont forget your teddy bear.[b][/b]

    

 

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